Unlike other sports, football has many positions on the field, making draft strategies more complex. In simple terms, teams generally follow two strategies.
First, pick what the team urgently needs.
Even if the best player in the draft is a quarterback, if a team already has a reliable franchise quarterback, they won't pick another quarterback, no matter how talented the rookie may be. Teams should match their draft picks to their own needs and select the best available player for that position, or fill gaps in their roster.
The saying goes, "One man's trash is another man's treasure."
A draft should not follow the hype. Just because a player is trending doesn't mean they are the best fit for every team. Popular players might be superstars or busts, depending on the team's needs, so staying calm and clear-headed is key.
Second, pick the best player available.
Sometimes the player a team urgently needs has already been taken by another team. In such cases, selecting the best available player left on the board can be a good backup plan.
The team can either trade that player for greater value or keep them and adjust their roster, filling other needs through free agency to build a balanced lineup.
This approach can be tricky, though, because it requires understanding the market value of draft picks, the team's salary cap, and future contract negotiations. A single misstep can create redundancies in the roster.
Before the draft, every NFL team runs mock drafts to prepare for various scenarios, not just their second or third option, but sometimes up to their sixth or seventh. Yet, despite all the preparation, the actual draft often surprises, making it unpredictable.
This is why the NFL draft is always so exciting—like a rollercoaster with unexpected twists and turns, full of surprises.
Top prospects unexpectedly falling out of the first round, popular players going undrafted, teams selecting kickers in the first three rounds, or teams finding hidden gems in the sixth or seventh rounds—anything can happen.
Until the last pick is made, no one knows for sure how things will unfold.
In fact, even sometimes the general managers and head coaches don't fully understand how things turned out.
In this chaotic backdrop, the NFL has a few teams that consistently disrupt the usual draft strategies. With sudden picks and surprise trades, they throw everyone's plans into disarray, setting off domino effects that leave other teams scrambling. These teams thrive on unpredictability.
For example, the New York Jets.
Other teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, and Washington Football Team also often deliver shocking moments with their bold draft moves.
So, when scout Brandt kept Harbaugh guessing about which team he saw at the game, Harbaugh immediately thought of the Jaguars.
The reasoning was simple: Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley had long lacked influence in the team's decision-making process. Despite his desire to add a running back to ease the pressure on their passing game, general manager David Caldwell had other ideas. Caldwell believed running backs didn't offer enough value and preferred to draft tight ends or wide receivers, leaving the running back position to be filled in free agency.
But Lance? Lance was different.
Lance represented not just an on-field talent but also the opportunity to tap into the vast Chinese and Asian markets. Caldwell, being the shrewd businessman he was, would not miss such an opportunity.
Moreover, the NFL would love to see this unfold, quietly pushing the narrative forward, with shows like Inside the NFL dedicating time to discuss Lance.
The winds were changing.
Harbaugh, ever perceptive, understood Caldwell's motivation perfectly.
In fact, Caldwell had already made his decision clear to Bradley.
"Lance," Caldwell said, his eyes gleaming—not with the cunning of a fox but with the sharpness of a businessman, as he made his final decision.
Bradley was quietly thrilled.
To be honest, Bradley fully supported Caldwell's decision. If they could draft Lance, Bradley would be more than happy to applaud Caldwell's choice.
The regular season was only halfway through, and there were still six months until the draft. Was there really a need to jump to conclusions so quickly?
Bradley hesitated, saying, "Of course, Lance would be a perfect pick, but maybe we should still take a look at other running backs, like Fournette or McCaffrey…"
Caldwell shook his head gently. "No, you misunderstood. I'm talking about Lance, not just the position of running back."
Caldwell clarified, "We need Lance. It's just a bonus that he happens to be a running back, that's all."
"Did you know that in the latest Heisman Trophy odds, Lance has officially surpassed Mayfield and Watson, now second only to Jackson?"
"There are still three weeks left in the NCAA regular season. While Jackson has been outstanding, even dominant, his team's performance doesn't compare to that of the Crimson Tide."
"If the Crimson Tide make it to the national championship but Louisville doesn't, there's a real possibility that Lance could overtake Jackson and win the Heisman."
"Hey, Gus, if Lance wins the Heisman, he wouldn't just be the first Chinese-American winner—he'd be the first Asian winner in history."
"Do you know what that means?"
Caldwell's gaze drifted toward the world map, his eyes settling on the vast land of China.
Fourteen years ago, an NBA team had already taken the first leap into the Chinese market, reaping unbelievable commercial success.
Now, it was the NFL's turn.
Caldwell wasn't going to let this opportunity slip by. If the Jaguars wanted to seize this moment, they had to move quickly and plan carefully.
The NFL and NCAA have strict rules that prevent teams or agents from making personal contact with players before the draft. But they don't ban scouts from attending games.
Imagine this: at every game, from training to matches, a row of scouts wearing Jacksonville Jaguars gear would sit front and center. The Crimson Tide would notice. The media would notice. And naturally, Lance would notice. People would start wondering what the Jaguars were planning.
But there was no need to rush. They would gradually build the hype, keep the suspense going, and let everyone know the Jaguars had their eyes on a Crimson Tide star without revealing exactly who their target was.
Then, when the time was right, Caldwell himself would make the big reveal—heaping praise on Lance.
Imagine how Lance would feel then.
Sincerity didn't require face-to-face meetings. Even if the NFL and NCAA rules prohibited direct contact, Caldwell could still make a big show of things.
The louder and flashier the attention, the more it would signal the Jaguars' determination.
Caldwell's gaze was full of ambition.
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