(There's a little more at the end that hasn't been typed out yet; please wait for 10 minutes before reading. I'm very sorry.)
The day after Talleyrand left for Russia, to attend Potemkin's funeral.
Second floor of the Tuileries Palace.
Joseph frowned, looking at the solemn Brian and Mirabeau, before finally turning his gaze to Trade Minister Bailly, "So, which countries support Salzburg's proposal?"
Bailly took a breath and said, "Except for Baden, which has sent people to solicit our country's opinion and has yet to take a stance, all other signatory states agree to vote on England joining the Rhine-Saone Treaty."
Brian added, "England has no need to join the trade agreement between France and Germany. This is clearly someone manipulating behind the scenes."
Given England's colonial scale and industrial capacity, why would they be willing to open their markets to these small countries in Southern Germany, to do a good deed?
Bailly nodded, "I judge that the Southern German states want to propose other conditions during the negotiations. In fact, Bavaria and Salzburg have repeatedly requested to renegotiate tariffs, all of which we have rejected."
Mirabeau said, "Your Highness, recently, there has been a large-scale workshop owner protest in Southern German states. They're mainly targeting our country's competition.
"In the past two years, under the pressure of our products, they're losing a significant market share."
Bailly expressed his concerns, "According to the current trend, if a vote is held, the number of countries agreeing to England's admission is likely to be the vast majority."
The room fell silent for a moment, and Brian hesitantly said, "Your Highness, perhaps we can negotiate with Austria and Bavaria in advance and agree to let them raise the tariffs appropriately.
"As long as these two countries oppose it, there's no way for England's admission into the trade agreement to pass."
Basically, all of Southern Germany looks to Austria for cues, and Bavaria is the second-largest country.
Joseph pondered and shook his head, "Archbishop Brian, how much do you think they should increase the tariffs by in order to achieve their desired trade pattern?"
Brian turned to look at Bailly.
The latter hurriedly said, "Your Highness, I have estimated that Austria would have to increase tariffs on our country's industries of advantage by at least 40%, and about 15% on other industries, which might barely satisfy them. Other countries would need even higher tariffs."
Joseph smiled, "This would end up being higher than the tariffs before we signed the Rhine-Saone Treaty.
"At the moment, our country's industry is in a period of rapid development. If we suddenly lose the Southern German market due to this, it will lead to a wave of factory bankruptcies. It would take at least 3 to 5 years to recover the upward momentum."
This is the principle of economic development. The faster the development, the more confidence investors have, leading them to borrow extensively to expand their production scale.
If the market can absorb the output of goods, then the profits will be several times more than before. Otherwise, if there is a problem with the market, there will immediately be a glut of goods, and the previous heavy investment will turn into terrifying debt.
Brian sighed, "Your Highness, but it's difficult for us to..."
Joseph narrowed his eyes, saying in a deep voice, "When we signed the agreement, we gave them favorable conditions.
"Then we relied on hard work and development to win the competitive advantage for our products, so we should not compromise because they are unwilling to improve!"
He had brought a large number of advanced technologies from later generations, as well as concepts such as standardized production. He had also implemented financial reform, tax reform, abolished domestic market barriers, and even built a large number of rail transports.
Under this combination of reforms, how could the Southern German states, which relied on "natural evolution," ever compete with France?
Forget about them, even England is surpassed by France in many aspects of industrial production technology and domestic systems now. It is only by relying on their huge colonial markets that they are able to maintain an industrial advantage.
Bailly carefully reminded, "Your Highness, even if our country resists, but as long as the majority of the signatories vote in favor, the British will still join the Rhine-Saone Treaty."
Brian let out a breath, saying, "If that is the case, then we can only use war to make them make the right decision."
Joseph immediately shook his head.
France's current development momentum was good, and war would inevitably interrupt this trend.
Moreover, given England's eagerness to get involved in the trade disputes between France and Germany, it obviously hoped that France would come to blows with the Southern German states.
The ministers looked at each other, perplexed.
Brian said with some difficulty, "Your Highness, right now we must make a choice between compromise and war..."
But Joseph was recalling the 21st century, an era when no major country was willing to easily start a war, contemplating how they would handle a similar situation.
Suddenly, he smiled, "Between compromise and war, indeed there's another model, that is deterrence."
Joseph nodded, looking at Bailly, "Mr. Bailly, when is the voting date proposed by Salzburg?"
"In two months, Your Highness, the vote is to be held in Munich."
Joseph thought for a moment and commanded, "Inform the other countries that in 20 days, the voting will take place in Karlsruhe."
Karlsruhe was the largest city in the northern part of Baden, and also the essential route through which France travels east to Southern Germany.
Although Bailly did not understand the Crown Prince's intention, still, with absolute trust in His Highness, he promptly bowed and said, "Yes, Your Highness. I must depart immediately to notify so many countries in time."
Joseph continued, "You will also conduct secret negotiations with Baden, Wurttemberg, Augsburg, and Hesse, offering low-interest loans in exchange for their vote against the proposal to admit England."
In 1805, when a new war with Napoleon compelled Emperor Alexander to summon the talents of Kutuzov, the Tsar had never favored his greatest General. Even though he had nominally entrusted him with the command of the Russian Army, the Emperor insisted on making the major decisions himself—the most significant of which was to accept the fight against his French opponent in Austerlitz (near present-day Brno, Czech Republic) in December. Obsessed with matching Napoleon's prestige as a military leader, this led to the death or injury of 10,000 Russian soldiers; some regiments were almost completely wiped out. This was Russia's most severe military defeat in decades and severely tarnished its reputation. In an attempt to quell the panic, Alexander had Kutuzov fabricate a false report, falsely inflating the French Army's casualties by 9,000 while diminishing the Russian losses.
The Russian Emperor had no intention of accepting responsibility for the defeat—after all, technically it was Kutuzov who was in command—if there was any punishment for the General, it was a mild one: demoted to the position of Governor of Kyiv, a post that many other members of the Russian elite would have welcomed as an extraordinary promotion.